Quiz: Which Move-Up Seller Made the Better Decision?

Between 2011 and 2015, the median price of an Anaheim condo increased by 53%.

If your goal was to sell your condo and buy a typical Anaheim single-family home, which year actually put you in the better financial position?

A. 2011

B. 2015

C. Neither. You should have waited until 2022.

The answer might surprise you.

It’s Amazing How Different These Two Markets Felt

One thing I’ve learned after nearly two decades in real estate is that emotions and numbers don’t always tell the same story.

In 2011, it seemed like almost everyone who owned a condo felt they were getting shortchanged. Many owners still remembered the peak of the market a few years earlier and couldn’t imagine selling for so much less.

“I’d be giving my condo away.”

That was a common feeling.

Fast forward to 2015, and the conversation had completely changed. Inventory was low, multiple offers were becoming common, and condos were selling quickly. Owners finally felt like they had the upper hand again.

“This market is hot.”

If you asked most condo owners which market they would rather sell in, I think the vast majority would choose 2015 without hesitation.

The numbers, however, tell a different story.

Looking at the Anaheim Data

The table below compares the median sale price for all Anaheim condos and all Anaheim single-family homes during each year.

	2011	2015
Median Anaheim Condo	$215,000	$329,900
Median Anaheim Single-Family Home	$339,000	$485,000
Gap to Move Up	$124,000	$155,100

There’s no question condo owners did well during those four years. The median condo price increased from $215,000 to $329,900, a gain of more than 53%.

The problem is that the typical single-family home also became much more expensive.

While the median condo increased by about $115,000, the median single-family home increased by roughly $146,000. As a result, the amount of money needed to move from a typical Anaheim condo into a typical Anaheim house grew from $124,000 to $155,100.

In other words, the move-up gap increased by more than $31,000, or about 25%.

Why This Matters

This is one of the biggest misconceptions I see among homeowners.

When people think about moving, they often focus almost entirely on the value of the home they already own. That’s understandable—it’s usually their largest asset.

But if you’re buying another home at the same time, your current home’s value is only half of the equation.

The better question is:

Has the gap between what I’m selling and what I’m buying become larger or smaller?

In this example, condo owners felt far better about selling in 2015 than they did in 2011. Yet from a move-up perspective, buying the replacement home required significantly more money.

That’s why a “hot” market isn’t automatically the best market for every seller.

Quiz Answer

The best answer is A. 2011.

Although selling a condo felt much better in 2015, a typical Anaheim condo owner moving into a typical Anaheim single-family home actually faced a larger financial hurdle than they would have four years earlier.

Every market is different, and today’s conditions aren’t the same as they were in 2011 or 2015. But the principle hasn’t changed. If you’re planning to move up, don’t focus only on what your current home is worth. Pay just as much attention to the home you’re buying, because the difference between those two prices is often what matters most.